己内酰胺：供应偏紧撑价格，高位盘整待破局

Core Viewpoint - The domestic caprolactam market is experiencing a strong fluctuation due to tight supply and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream enterprises [1][4]. Supply Side - Production cuts and maintenance are frequent, leading to low operating levels in the industry. Several caprolactam plants have reduced their operational loads or are undergoing maintenance, resulting in a significant decrease in overall production capacity [3]. - Specific operational statuses include: - Balin Hengyi's caprolactam plant operating at 60-70% capacity - Hunan Petrochemical's 600,000 tons/year plant at 70% capacity - Nanjing Fubon Tech's 200,000 tons CPL plant is currently offline for maintenance with no confirmed restart date [3]. - The overall operating rate in the industry has dropped to around 70%, leading to a supply shortage that supports price increases [5]. Demand Side - Downstream PA6 polymer enterprises are adopting a cautious purchasing attitude due to high caprolactam prices. They are only purchasing based on immediate production needs, which limits the market demand and slows down price increases [4][6]. - The cautious procurement behavior is a response to the high raw material costs, preventing large-scale stockpiling and thus alleviating some pressure on prices [4]. Market Outlook - The tight supply situation is expected to continue supporting caprolactam prices, with overall production and operating levels unlikely to see significant adjustments in the near term [5]. - Despite the supportive supply conditions, downstream PA6 market faces challenges in passing on high costs, which may pressure profit margins and lead some polymer enterprises to reduce production loads [6]. - The market is anticipated to maintain a high-level consolidation phase, with prices unlikely to drop significantly but also lacking strong upward momentum due to demand constraints [6].