Bitcoin Price Risks a 15% Drop if This Key Level Breaks Before 2025 Ends

Core Insights - Bitcoin price is currently under pressure, down approximately 4% in the last 24 hours and nearly 10% over the past 30 days, indicating increasing selling pressure in the crypto market [1] - A critical long-term price level, the 2-Year Simple Moving Average (2Y SMA) near $82,800, has emerged as a significant marker for Bitcoin's future performance [2] - The importance of the 2Y SMA lies in its role as a long-term cycle indicator, with the monthly closing price being crucial for analysis [2] Price Analysis - The last time Bitcoin fell below the 2Y SMA in mid-2022, it experienced a further correction of 51% before attempting a recovery, highlighting the significance of the upcoming December 31 monthly close [4] - Monthly closes below the 2Y SMA have historically indicated extended bearish phases, while defenses or recoveries above it have signaled cycle survival [5] - Analysts emphasize that Bitcoin must remain above this critical level by month-end to avoid a confirmed breakdown signal [6] Selling Pressure - On-chain data reveals increasing selling activity among long-term holders, defined as wallets holding Bitcoin for over 155 days, throughout December [7] - Net outflows from long-term holders rose from approximately 116,000 BTC to nearly 269,000 BTC by December 15, representing an increase in selling pressure of over 130% in just two weeks [7][8] - The behavior of long-term holders, who typically sell during periods of conviction or risk reduction, adds to the downside pressure and complicates the defense of key support levels [8]