杨德龙：2026年我国经济形势与股市行情前瞻性分析

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Market Trends - The macroeconomic environment is expected to improve gradually, supporting a slow bull market through stable growth policies and economic transformation [1][6] - Emerging industries highlighted in the "14th Five-Year Plan," such as semiconductor chips, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology, are projected to show significant growth, contributing to long-term investment opportunities [1][3] - The market in 2026 is likely to exhibit accelerated sector rotation and broader participation, potentially resembling a comprehensive bull market [1][7] Group 2: Capital Market Dynamics - A noticeable trend of residents shifting savings to capital markets began in 2025, with public fund issuance exceeding 1 trillion yuan, indicating a growing preference for equity funds over bond funds [2][7] - The end-of-year market typically experiences increased volatility, with profit-taking leading to short-term adjustments, which is considered normal [2][8] - Historical patterns suggest a "spring offensive" in the A-share market, driven by significant credit expansion and the return of profit-taking funds post-holiday [2][8] Group 3: Technology Sector Insights - The artificial intelligence sector has shown remarkable performance, with government initiatives promoting "AI+" to enhance productivity across traditional industries [3][9] - A comparison with international markets indicates that A-share and Hong Kong tech stocks are still in the early stages of growth, with significant room for development [3][9] - The valuation of tech stocks should focus on long-term growth potential rather than short-term metrics, as many companies are still in high-investment phases [4][10] Group 4: Precious Metals and Asset Allocation - Gold and silver prices have seen substantial increases, with gold reaching a peak of 4,400 USD per ounce in 2025, and are expected to continue rising in 2026 [4][10] - The U.S. government's high debt levels and interest payments have led to a shift in investor preference towards precious metals as a hedge against dollar depreciation [5][11] - A recommended allocation of approximately 20% in gold assets for investment portfolios in 2026 is suggested to enhance risk-return profiles [5][11] Group 5: Dividend Stocks and Investment Strategies - Dividend-paying stocks, particularly in the banking sector, have performed well in 2025 and are expected to remain attractive in 2026 due to declining deposit rates [12] - Investors are likely to favor stable dividend stocks as they enter the capital market, driven by a low-risk appetite [12] - The overall market logic of a slow bull and long bull remains intact, with sectors like technology innovation, new energy, and consumer upgrades expected to support market performance [6][12]