ZFX山海证券:算力回落与矿业承压

Core Insights - Bitcoin network hash rate has experienced a significant decline, with the 30-day simple moving average dropping from approximately 1.1 ZH/s to just above 1 ZH/s, marking the largest decrease since the 2024 halving event [1][5] - The decline in hash rate is primarily attributed to the shutdown of a large number of mining machines, with estimates suggesting around 400,000 machines have ceased operations, resulting in a daily hash rate drop of approximately 100 EH/s, a nearly 8% decrease [1][5] - Current hash rate pricing is around $37 per PH/s, close to a five-year low, indicating that the rewards from block generation and transaction fees are insufficient to cover operational costs for some mining facilities [1][5] Hash Rate Dynamics - The ongoing halving effect has intensified miners' reliance on price increases or cost reductions, with hash rate adjustments often occurring before significant price changes [2][6] - The current changes in hash rate reflect a redistribution of the global mining landscape, where concentrated shutdowns in certain regions have allowed others to gain a higher share of the total hash rate without additional policy incentives [2][6] - Recently, some regions had their hash rate share rise to about 14% of the global total, suggesting that the current decline is more of a phase fluctuation rather than a simple reversal of a long-term trend [2][6] Mining Difficulty and Market Outlook - As the total hash rate declines, Bitcoin mining difficulty is expected to face downward pressure, currently at approximately 148.2 trillion T, slightly below historical highs, with a projected decrease of about 3% in the next adjustment [2][6] - This difficulty adjustment is anticipated to provide short-term relief for remaining miners, enhancing the profitability of their operations [2][6] - However, this relief is seen as a technical correction rather than a trend reversal, with the mining industry likely facing further consolidation pressures if hash rate prices remain low [3][7] Long-term Industry Perspective - The current hash rate decline is viewed as a healthy industry rebalancing, where the exit of less efficient capacity can enhance the average competitiveness of remaining miners and help the network find a balance between cost and security [3][7] - Historical patterns indicate that significant hash rate adjustments often lay the groundwork for stable growth in subsequent phases [3][7] - Overall, the decline in hash rate does not necessarily indicate a deterioration of the network's fundamentals but rather reflects the natural economic dynamics of the mining industry [3][7]