RadexMarkets 瑞德克斯:比特币美盘承压

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has recently fallen below the $86,000 mark, indicating a broader weakness in the cryptocurrency market, which is not an isolated event but part of a long-term trend of weak performance during U.S. trading hours [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The recent price action shows that Bitcoin remained relatively stable overnight, but selling pressure increased significantly with the opening of U.S. stock markets. This "time zone difference" is becoming an important market observation signal, influenced by changes in capital flow and the trading mechanisms of spot Bitcoin ETFs [1][2]. - The divergence in performance between post-market holding strategies and intraday trading is continuing to widen, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [2]. Impact on Related Stocks - It is not surprising that cryptocurrency-related stocks have also declined, with significant adjustments seen in companies like Strategy, Circle, Coinbase, and various trading platforms and mining companies. This independent decline in the crypto sector reflects a deepening differentiation within risk assets compared to the mild pullbacks in traditional stock indices [3]. Macroeconomic Environment - Upcoming key economic data and major central bank policy meetings are expected to influence global liquidity expectations. Although these factors have not yet directly altered Bitcoin's mid-term range structure, market sentiment is becoming increasingly cautious as the year-end approaches, with funds more inclined to control risk exposure [4]. - Technically, Bitcoin is still operating within a range of $80,000 to $94,000. The order book indicates concentrated buying around $85,000, which may provide short-term support and limit further declines [4]. - Despite a cooling expectation for year-end rebounds, the current price behavior appears to be more about phase digestion and position clearing. In the absence of structural negative factors, this process is not sufficient to define a trend reversal, and the market still requires time for adjustment and rebalancing [4].