港股通创新药跌跌不休，什么原因？核心标的“520880”再创阶段新低，技术面释放什么信号？

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug ETF (520880) is experiencing a significant decline, reaching a new low in nearly five months, with a drop of 1.91% and nearing its initial listing price level. The underlying 37 innovative drug companies saw 29 decline and 8 rise, indicating a challenging market environment for the sector [1][9]. Market Performance - In December, the Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug ETF (520880) has only recorded two days of gains over 12 trading days, reflecting a broader market pressure. The innovative drug sector, characterized by high valuation elasticity, is particularly vulnerable to capital outflows [10]. - The ETF has seen a significant adjustment, with a drop of over 22% since early September, indicating a substantial correction that may have released some elastic space for future recovery [4][12]. Fund Flows - Recent market adjustments have prompted noticeable buying activity, with over 75 million yuan net subscriptions in a single day, leading to a total of over 200 million yuan in net inflows over six consecutive days. The ETF's share has risen to a new high of 4.148 billion shares [2][12]. Technical Analysis - The technical indicators for the Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug ETF (520880) suggest a bearish trend, with the MACD showing a clear downtrend. The DIF is below the DEA, indicating strong downward momentum in the short term [5][12]. Long-term Outlook - The fundamental drivers for the development of China's innovative drug sector, including accelerated international expansion, technological upgrades, and commercialization, remain unchanged. Upcoming industry events and breakthroughs are expected to provide positive catalysts, with a focus on the first quarter of 2026 [14]. ETF Characteristics - The Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug ETF (520880) is noted for its unique advantages, including a pure focus on innovative drugs without CXO companies, a significant concentration of leading firms with over 72% weight in the top ten holdings, and controlled risks through forced de-weighting of less liquid stocks [15][16][17].