未来产业的中国路径与全球竞合

Core Insights - The future industrial core tracks in China are distributed across six major fields: quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communication, characterized by strategic, leading, and disruptive features [1][6] Group 1: Future Industry Landscape - The Chinese government emphasizes "forward-looking layout of future industries" as a strategic initiative to clarify the main direction of industrial structure and reveal key driving forces for advanced industrial foundation and modernization of the industrial chain [1][6] - Major economies globally are experiencing a new wave of technological innovation leading to industrial innovation, with AI, biotechnology, controllable nuclear fusion, and quantum technology driving rapid marketization and industrialization [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Breakthroughs in clean energy technologies are accelerating global decarbonization, with solar photovoltaic capacity expected to reach 341 GW and 235 GW for ground-mounted and distributed solar respectively by 2030 [3] - The hydrogen energy sector is projected to account for 18% of global energy demand by 2050, while the nuclear fusion market is expected to grow to approximately $2.26 trillion by 2035 [3] - Quantum technology advancements are expected to lead to a global quantum computing market size of $20 billion and quantum communication market of $42.1 billion by 2030 [3] Group 3: China's Competitive Advantages - China possesses unique advantages in developing future industries, including a new type of national system for resource concentration, a complete industrial system for engineering and industrialization, and a vast market for commercializing new technologies [6][10] - The country has emerged as a leader in various fields, such as brain-computer interfaces, biomanufacturing, and quantum technology, with significant achievements in each area [7][8] Group 4: Policy and Strategic Initiatives - The Chinese government has issued several policy documents to promote innovation in future industries, including specific guidelines for brain-computer interfaces and biomanufacturing [9] - A comprehensive ecosystem for future industries is being constructed, focusing on technology breakthroughs, scene verification, industrial applications, and system upgrades [9][10] Group 5: Investment and Innovation - The development of future industries requires strengthening infrastructure, enhancing original innovation, and deepening the integration of technological and industrial innovation [11][12] - Establishing a risk-sharing mechanism for investment in future industries is crucial, with a focus on government-led initiatives to attract social capital [13][14]