每日机构分析：12月16日

Group 1 - Nomura Securities predicts that the Bank of Korea has ended its current rate-cutting cycle, with a shift in policy risk towards rate hikes by 2026, supported by economic recovery in consumption, construction, and the semiconductor industry [1] - Standard & Poor's Global reports that the UK's PMI has stabilized, with business confidence recovering, although growth remains weak, as the composite PMI rose to 52.1 in December [2] - The Australian Federal Bank expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates to 3.85% by February 2026, with a tightening cycle potentially beginning due to core inflation remaining above 3% for five consecutive quarters [3] Group 2 - The OECD Secretary-General states that the AI investment boom will continue, significantly boosting productivity and economic growth in the medium to long term, despite a projected slowdown in global growth from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026 due to increasing trade headwinds [2] - The economic outlook for the Eurozone is uncertain, with a decline in Germany's industrial performance dragging down overall results, as the composite PMI fell to 51.9 in December, indicating a contraction in manufacturing for two consecutive months [2] - Morningstar DBRS has a negative outlook on the global private credit industry, warning that declining borrower profit margins may increase default rates in 2026, although the industry remains resilient despite regulatory tightening in the US and UK [3]