群智咨询：预计2026年电视面板市场增长重点转向大尺寸

Core Insights - The global LCD TV panel shipment is expected to reach 248 million units in 2025, a 3.0% year-on-year increase, but is projected to decline to 243 million units in 2026, a 2.1% decrease, with a focus on larger sizes driving a 0.9% increase in shipment area [1][3] Market Overview - The demand for LCD TV panels is influenced by several factors, including the upcoming 2026 World Cup, which is expected to drive demand in late 2025 and early 2026 due to inventory preparations [1][2] - The North American market is expected to remain vibrant due to tax incentives and World Cup preparations, while the Chinese market faces challenges due to a sluggish real estate sector [2][3] Supply Chain Dynamics - The rising prices of storage devices present a dual effect on the TV panel market, potentially increasing short-term demand but also raising costs for manufacturers, which may lead to reduced orders for smaller panels [2][3] - Major panel manufacturers are planning production cuts during the Chinese New Year to stabilize prices and manage supply-demand dynamics [3][10] Company Strategies - BOE aims to enhance its operational strength by focusing on size structure upgrades, with plans to produce 65.32 million panels in 2026, increasing the proportion of large sizes [6] - TCL CSOT plans to maintain stable production levels while focusing on profitability and product structure optimization, with a target of 58.81 million panels in 2026 [6] - HKC is adopting a flexible capacity strategy to ensure steady growth, planning to produce 38.11 million panels in 2026, with a focus on larger sizes [7] Price and Demand Outlook - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see a balance in supply and demand due to production cuts, with potential localized price increases for LCD TV panels [10] - The second quarter may face challenges as manufacturing costs rise, impacting promotional strategies for brands [10] Industry Growth Model - The concept of a growth flywheel is applicable to the TV industry, where various components, including panels, storage, and assembly, interact to drive growth [13] - The health of the growth flywheel may be threatened by rising storage prices and profit losses in the assembly segment, necessitating a collaborative approach to maintain value growth [13]