Uber Freight sees U.S.–Mexico trade driving freight rebound into 2026

Core Insights - The U.S. freight market is stabilizing, with tighter conditions expected in 2026, driven by cross-border trade with Mexico [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Resilient consumer spending, nearshoring activities, and capacity discipline among carriers are stabilizing demand after a prolonged downturn, despite ongoing pressures in manufacturing and geopolitical risks [3]. - Mexico's share of U.S. imports has increased to 15.5%, solidifying its position as the largest U.S. trading partner [4]. - Foreign direct investment in Mexico reached $34.3 billion in the first half of 2025, marking a 10.2% year-over-year increase, with the U.S. as the top investor [5]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Export growth from Mexico is particularly strong in vehicles, auto parts, industrial machinery, furniture, and medical instruments, which are crucial for truckload and cross-border freight demand [5]. - Despite U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper, Mexico has maintained export volumes, albeit at higher production costs, underscoring its significance in North American manufacturing [6]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Road blockades in Mexico's Bajío region, led by labor groups, have disrupted over 8,000 truckloads, causing delays and congestion on key U.S.-Mexico corridors [7]. - Security concerns, including cargo theft, are prompting shippers to invest in advanced tracking, geofencing, and in-cab monitoring technologies [8].