Core Viewpoint - Foreign brands in China are facing significant challenges, with a high probability of exit for multinational car companies with annual sales below 100,000 units, estimated at over 80% for 5 to 6 companies [1] Group 1: Market Share Dynamics - In 2020, domestic brands held a market share of 36%, while foreign brands had 64%. By January to October of this year, domestic brands increased their share to 65%, while foreign brands decreased to 35% [3] - In November, the retail market shares were reported as follows: German brands at 14%, Japanese at 11.7%, American at 5.7%, and Korean at 0.9% [4] Group 2: Exit Probability of Multinational Companies - The probability of exit for multinational companies is closely linked to their market scale. Companies with annual sales between 100,000 to 300,000 units have a 50% to 80% exit probability, with an expectation of 4 to 5 companies exiting; those with sales between 300,000 to 600,000 units have a lower exit probability of 20% to 50%, with an expectation of 2 to 3 companies [4] - Companies with annual sales below 100,000 units include Shenlong Automobile, Chery Jaguar Land Rover, smart, Changan Lincoln, Changan Mazda, and Jiangling Ford [4] Group 3: Strategic Adaptations of Multinational Companies - Leading multinational companies are accelerating their transformation towards a "made in China, for China" strategy. Volkswagen has established a China Technical Research Center (VCTC) for electric vehicle architecture; Toyota has set up an electric intelligent vehicle R&D center in China; Nissan has founded Nissan Technology Development (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. for smart driving and new energy research [4] - In joint ventures, the influence of Chinese teams on product definition is increasing. For instance, Toyota has adopted a local chief engineer management model; Volkswagen has upgraded its strategy from "headquarters directive, local execution" to "joint definition, co-development"; General Motors has shifted product definition authority to local teams, focusing entirely on Chinese customer needs [5] Group 4: Global Sharing of R&D Achievements - Some multinational companies are beginning to share their R&D achievements from China with global markets. For example, BMW has developed a voice interaction system based on Alibaba and DeepSeek's large model for global application; Tesla has integrated over 60 Chinese suppliers into its global procurement system; Stellantis has formed a joint venture with Leap Motor to fill the market gap for affordable electric vehicles [5]