连续三年两位数盈利在望，华尔街称美股牛市仍有支撑

Group 1 - The core observation is that despite concerns about the U.S. corporate growth engine potentially stalling, there is still fuel in the tank, with projections indicating a gradual acceleration in S&P 500 earnings growth until 2027, leading to three consecutive years of double-digit earnings expansion [1] - Analysts expect S&P 500 companies to achieve an 8.3% profit growth in the upcoming fourth-quarter earnings season, contributing to an overall annual profit increase of 12% [1] - The forecast for next year shows a 5% increase in earnings per share to $310, indicating a year-over-year growth of 13%, with expectations for this figure to rise to 14% by 2027 [1] Group 2 - Historical data shows that the S&P 500 index has only experienced two instances of consecutive three-year double-digit earnings growth in the past 35 years, specifically from 1993-1995 and 2003-2005, with each period yielding an annualized return of 13%, surpassing the long-term average of 10% [2] - The sectors expected to achieve the highest year-over-year earnings growth by 2026 are information technology, materials, and industrials, while the consumer staples sector is projected to lag behind the broader market [2] Group 3 - There is a cautionary note regarding the high expectations set by sell-side analysts, as any failure to meet these predictions could lead to market volatility [3] - Uncertainties remain regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the full impact of U.S. tariff policies, which have yet to be fully realized in the economy [3] - Excluding the "seven giants," the remaining S&P 500 constituents are expected to achieve a 13% earnings growth by 2026, closely aligning with the 18% expected growth from the high-growth giants [3]