A股因何调整？公募激辩未来走势，大摩：2026年更多外资回归中国市场

Market Overview - A-shares have seen a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping from a high of 4034 points in mid-November to near 3800 points [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 1.74%, while the Hang Seng Index and the China Enterprises Index dropped by 1.54% and 1.79%, respectively, marking recent lows [1] - Bitcoin has recently fallen below $86,000 for the first time in two weeks, and gold prices ended a five-day increase, with COMEX gold down by 0.61% [1] ETF Performance - Gold-themed ETFs have experienced notable declines, with the Yongying Gold Stock ETF dropping by 4.16%, leading the market [2] - Other ETFs in sectors such as semiconductor, new energy, photovoltaic, and artificial intelligence also saw declines exceeding 3% [1][2] Reasons for Market Adjustment - The recent downturn in A-shares is attributed to three main factors: a significant drop in the AI sector of the US stock market, a hawkish stance on interest rate cuts, and increased liquidity demands as the year-end approaches [4] - The AI sector's decline was highlighted by major US tech stocks losing substantial market value, impacting the A-share technology index [4] Future Market Outlook - Despite recent volatility, several brokerages suggest that the spring market rally may still be anticipated, supported by policy measures and liquidity improvements as year-end approaches [6] - There is a consensus among institutions that the current market conditions may present opportunities for a "spring rally," particularly in sectors aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan" such as quantum technology and biomanufacturing [7] 2026 Market Predictions - Looking ahead to 2026, institutions are optimistic about the equity market, particularly in technology, which is expected to remain a key focus [9] - The return of foreign capital to the Chinese market is anticipated, with sectors such as high-end manufacturing and biotechnology expected to offer significant investment opportunities [10]