制造业疲软影响 德国企业活动低于预期

Core Insights - The growth of private sector activity in Germany in December fell short of expectations, with the manufacturing sector recording its worst performance in ten months [1][3] - The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased from 52.4 in the previous month to 51.5, remaining above the neutral 50 mark due to the service sector's expansion for the fourth consecutive month [1][3] Economic Outlook - Cyrus de la Rubia, an economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, stated that the service sector is stabilizing the overall economy and is expected to contribute significantly to positive GDP growth in the fourth quarter [3][5] - The German economy, driven by infrastructure and defense spending under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, is projected to recover next year while currently striving for modest growth [3][5] - The German central bank and other forecasting institutions anticipate growth in output for the fourth quarter, aided by the European Central Bank's earlier interest rate cuts [3][5] Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The Purchasing Managers' Index contrasts with recent manufacturing data, which had painted a more optimistic industry outlook [3][5] - In October, factory orders surged, particularly due to a rise in transportation orders covering aircraft, ships, trains, and military vehicles, with industrial production data also exceeding expectations [3][5]