Blackstone Secured Lending's NAV, Valuation, And Dividend Versus 11 BDC Peers - Part 2 (Includes Calendar Q1 2026 - Q2 2026 Dividend Projections)

Core Insights - The article provides a detailed analysis comparing Blackstone Secured Lending (BXSL) to 11 of its business development company (BDC) peers, focusing on dividend sustainability and performance metrics [1][2][3] Group 1: Dividend Analysis - BXSL declared a base dividend of $0.77 per share for Q4 2025, with a TTM dividend yield of 10.93% and an annual forward yield of 11.28% based on projected NAV [30][28] - The analysis indicates that BXSL's TTM yield is slightly below average compared to its peers, while its annual forward yield is near average [28][30] - BXSL has maintained its base dividend since its IPO in Q4 2021, increasing it from $0.53 to $0.77 per share, contrasting with some peers that have reduced their dividends [17][18] Group 2: Dividend Sustainability Metrics - BXSL's cumulative undistributable taxable income (UTI) coverage ratio was 1.89 as of 9/30/2025, significantly higher than the average of its peers, indicating strong dividend sustainability [16][15] - The weighted average annualized yield on BXSL's debt investments was 10.00%, which is below the peer average of 11.24%, suggesting potential challenges in maintaining dividend levels if interest rates decline further [20][31] - BXSL has a high proportion of floating-rate debt investments at 99.40%, which has been beneficial in a rising interest rate environment but may pose risks if rates decrease significantly [22][23] Group 3: Future Projections and Recommendations - The company is projected to maintain a dividend range of $0.70 to $0.77 per share for Q1 and Q2 2026, with a 90% probability of achieving this range [32] - Current market conditions and BXSL's large cumulative UTI balance provide a buffer against potential dividend cuts, although a reduction of up to 10% is still considered possible [33][31] - The recommendation for BXSL is currently a BUY, with a price target of approximately $33.45 per share, indicating that the stock is undervalued at its current trading price [37][36]