Pfizer's modest 2026 outlook shows its big investments will take time to pay off

Core Viewpoint - Pfizer is forecasting modest guidance for 2026 as it focuses on long-term investments in its pipeline to mitigate declining sales from Covid products and older drugs [1] Group 1: Financial Outlook - Pfizer expects adjusted profit for 2026 to be between $2.80 and $3 per share, slightly below analysts' consensus estimate of $3.05 per share [3] - Revenue is projected to be between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion, which is largely flat compared to the 2025 sales guidance of $62 billion [4] - The company anticipates a decline of approximately $1.5 billion in sales from Covid vaccine and antiviral pill Paxlovid, projecting 2026 sales from these products to be around $5 billion [4] Group 2: Market Challenges - Pfizer is facing a projected $1.5 billion year-over-year drop in sales due to certain products losing market exclusivity, with increased competition impacting blockbuster drugs like Prevnar [5] - Patent expirations are expected to significantly affect revenues, with an estimated $17 billion impacted by expirations occurring primarily in 2026 and 2028 [6] Group 3: Strategic Investments - The company has made significant acquisitions, including a $10 billion deal for Metsera and a $43 billion acquisition of Seagen, to build new revenue streams [2] - However, the benefits from these investments are still distant, as Metsera's pipeline consists of drugs in early-stage development [3] Group 4: Cost Management - Pfizer has exceeded its cost-saving goals for 2025 and is targeting over $7 billion in cost cuts by 2027, expecting to deliver most of these savings by next year [8] - The guidance reflects costs associated with recent acquisitions, including Metsera [7] Group 5: Regulatory Environment - The company is navigating changes in U.S. vaccine policy, which has introduced uncertainty, particularly under Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. [9] - Pfizer's CEO stated that comments from the FDA regarding vaccines do not merit concern and will not alter the company's long-term investment strategy [10] Group 6: Pricing Strategy - Pfizer has entered a drug pricing deal that includes selling existing drugs to Medicaid patients at the lowest price offered in other developed nations, which will lead to price and margin compression in 2026 [11]