XRP Lost Over 45% Since July Peak: Can $1B ETF Momentum Reverse the Slide?

Core Insights - XRP experienced a significant price decline of over 45% from its peak of $3.66 in July 2025 to around $2.00 by December 2025, primarily due to profit-taking by whales and a broader selloff in the crypto market [4][6][10] - Despite the price drop, XRP ETF inflows reached $1 billion in under four weeks, marking the fastest institutional adoption since Ethereum ETFs launched, which could potentially stabilize and reverse the price decline [6][9][10][15] Price Movement and Market Dynamics - XRP's all-time high of $3.66 was achieved after a 480% increase over the previous year, but the subsequent retreat has left approximately 37% of XRP holders with unrealized losses [4][6][10] - The broader crypto market lost over $1 trillion in value from October to November 2025, contributing to XRP's decline alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum [2][4] Whale Activity and Selling Pressure - Whales sold approximately 200 million XRP (valued at $400 million) in late November 2025, likely to lock in profits from the summer surge [2][3] - A significant portion of recent XRP buyers are now holding underwater positions, leading to continued selling pressure as some investors cut losses [3][6] ETF Inflows and Institutional Demand - XRP ETF inflows have created structural demand, with nearly $1 billion in assets attracted within four weeks of launching, indicating strong institutional interest [9][10][14] - The inflows have absorbed nearly 1% of XRP's circulating supply, contributing to a tightening of exchange balances, which fell from 3.95 billion to 2.6 billion XRP over 60 days [10][14] Future Price Predictions - Analysts present three potential scenarios for XRP's price trajectory through 2026, depending on the sustainability of ETF inflows and broader market conditions [16][17][20] - The bullish scenario suggests that sustained ETF inflows could push XRP back to its previous high of $3.66 by Q4 2026, while the bearish scenario warns of a potential drop to $1.50 if whale selling accelerates and ETF inflows fade [17][23][24]