China Turnaround in 2026? 3 Stocks to Play the Rebound

Core Insights - China's policy shift towards a moderately loose monetary policy and focus on domestic demand is expected to drive economic recovery by 2026, benefiting U.S.-listed Chinese companies like Tencent, Bilibili, and Baidu [2][3][10] Economic Policy Changes - In December 2025, China's Politburo announced a shift to a moderately loose monetary policy for the first time since 2010, breaking a 14-year trend of cautious policy [3] - The Central Economic Work Conference set a budget deficit target of 4% and prioritized domestic demand for 2026 [3] Economic Growth Forecasts - Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 GDP forecast for China to 4.8%, while the IMF expects 4.5% growth, indicating increased confidence in China's recovery plans [4] Technology Sector Developments - China's technology sector is thriving, particularly in artificial intelligence and e-commerce, with the e-commerce market valued at approximately $2.42 trillion in 2025 and projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.9% to reach around $5.68 trillion by 2035 [5] - Major investments in green energy and advanced manufacturing technologies are being made, with Alibaba committing over $50 billion for cloud and AI development [7] Manufacturing Sector Progress - Significant advancements are being made in semiconductors and electric vehicles, with record sales of 1.82 million electric vehicles in November 2025, capturing 53% of the domestic market [6] Economic Indicators - Manufacturing activity reached a five-month high in November, and consumer prices rose to 0.7%, the highest in 21 months, suggesting that government stimulus measures are effective [8] Stock Performance and Opportunities - Tencent, Baidu, and Bilibili have seen recent stock declines of 13.5%, 9.3%, and 12.5% respectively, presenting potential entry points for investors as they are well-positioned to benefit from the economic recovery [9][10] - Tencent reported $10 billion in international gaming sales, with a 15% revenue growth and a 43% surge in international gaming, alongside a 32% dividend increase [15] - Bilibili achieved a net profit of RMB469 million in Q3 2025, with a 233% year-over-year increase in adjusted net profit and 36.7% gross margin [19] - Baidu's AI business is growing rapidly, with a year-over-year increase of over 50% in revenue, and the company is positioned to benefit from its full-stack AI ecosystem [24]