Mission Produce Faces Headwinds Before Q4 Earnings: Buy, Hold or Sell?

Core Viewpoint - Mission Produce Inc. (AVO) is expected to report declines in both sales and earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, with projected sales of $312.3 million, reflecting an 11.9% decrease year-over-year, and earnings per share (EPS) anticipated to fall by 32.1% compared to the previous year [1][2][9]. Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - The consensus estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter sales is $312.3 million, indicating an 11.9% decline from the prior year's figure [1][9]. - The expected earnings per share for the fourth quarter is 19 cents, suggesting a 32.1% decrease from the same quarter last year [2][9]. - Despite a strong historical earnings surprise trend, the current model does not predict an earnings beat for AVO this season, with an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [3][4]. Group 2: Market and Operational Insights - The fourth-quarter results are likely to be influenced by a 15% year-over-year increase in industry avocado volumes, driven by a strong Peruvian supply and a transition to a larger Mexican crop [5][6]. - The company's ability to manage the Peru-to-Mexico sourcing transition effectively is expected to be a key driver, with investments in Mexican packhouse enhancements aimed at improving capacity and efficiency [6][10]. - Diversification into blueberries and mangoes is anticipated to contribute to growth, with blueberry acreage expanding to over 700 hectares and expected volume growth despite lower pricing [7][10]. Group 3: Margin and Pricing Dynamics - Gross margins are expected to moderate due to pricing pressures, but operational efficiencies and higher owned-farm volumes may help maintain profitability [8][10]. - The company faces near-term challenges from soft demand and tariff uncertainties, which could impact margins and profitability [9][11]. Group 4: Stock Performance and Valuation - Mission Produce's shares have seen a slight decline of 0.4% over the past three months, underperforming the industry and the S&P 500 [12][16]. - The stock currently trades at a forward P/E multiple of 26.54X, which is above the industry average of 12.19X and the S&P 500's average of 23.35X, indicating strong investor expectations for future growth [17][18]. Group 5: Long-term Growth and Strategic Positioning - Mission Produce is reinforcing its position as a global avocado leader through a vertically integrated model and diversified sourcing, enhancing supply reliability and operational efficiency [20][22]. - The company is expanding into higher-growth categories like blueberries and mangoes, which improves revenue diversification and reduces reliance on a single crop cycle [21][23]. - Ongoing investments in digital tools and supply-chain capabilities are expected to enhance operational efficiency and support long-term margin recovery despite near-term challenges [24].