钢铁业持续“反内卷” 上游原料价格走势分化

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese steel industry is undergoing significant structural changes due to a series of government measures aimed at curbing "involution" competition, with the implementation of export license management for steel products expected to accelerate these changes [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The demand for construction steel has been declining due to a downturn in the real estate sector, while demand from the manufacturing sector, particularly the automotive industry, is on the rise. The share of construction steel demand dropped from approximately 58% in 2020 to an expected 50% by 2024, with manufacturing steel demand increasing correspondingly [1][2]. - In 2023, the total investment in real estate development in China was 78,591 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9%. Concurrently, crude steel production fell by 4.0% to 89,167 million tons [2]. Price Trends - The price of rebar is projected to decline from 3,800 yuan/ton to 3,000 yuan/ton between 2024 and the second half of 2025, representing a 21% decrease [2]. - The average export price of steel has dropped by over 60% from December 2021 to October 2025, despite a 94.4% increase in monthly export volume [3]. Policy Changes - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export license management for a wide range of steel products, which is seen as a measure to control total output and segment domestic and international markets [3][4]. - The export quota policy is expected to create short-term emotional impacts and a decline in export orders, but it is also viewed as a strategic shift towards higher value-added product exports [4]. Raw Material Prices - Prices for upstream raw materials, such as coke and iron ore, have been declining. As of December 12, coke prices were reduced by 50-55 yuan/ton, and domestic coking coal futures fell below 1,100 yuan/ton [6]. - Iron ore prices have remained stable between 100-110 USD/ton, with expectations of a continued decline in demand and an oversupply situation in the market [6].