Bitcoin Could Hit $140,000 in Next 180 Days, Expert Says

Core Insights - New analysis indicates that Bitcoin's four-year cycles have been replaced, with a potential rebound to $140,000 within the next 180 days due to the impact of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking Bitcoin's spot price [1] - The analysis from Copper suggests that Bitcoin has shown a repeatable pattern of breaking to new all-time highs, correcting sharply, and then finding support at the ETF investor cost basis before expanding again [1] - Since the launch of these ETFs in January 2024, Bitcoin has experienced three cycles, each delivering returns exceeding 60% [1] Market Dynamics - There is a notable divide between crypto-focused traders and institutional investors, with some commentators labeling the current market as "the worst bull market ever" [2] - The sharp corrections in Bitcoin's price during price discovery are primarily attributed to institutions rebalancing their portfolios, which transforms Bitcoin's volatility into realized returns [2] - Institutions are recommended to allocate between 2% and 5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin, but a sudden price surge can significantly impact these allocations [2] Allocation Impact - Without rebalancing, a 2% Bitcoin allocation can drift to 6.2% in less than 180 days during these cycles, while a 5% allocation can approach double digits [3] - Bitcoin is currently trading near its $84,000 cost basis, suggesting a potential move above $140,000 in the next 180 days, especially if the cost basis rises by 10% to 15% as seen in previous cycles [4] Future Considerations - The prospect of Bitcoin returning to all-time highs within six months could provide optimism for traders, although analysts caution that there are currently few catalysts to drive Bitcoin's price upward [4] - A critical test will be whether Bitcoin's value falls below its cost basis for ETF investors, as prolonged periods in the red could intensify sell-offs [5]