Trump’s Promised Big Tax Cuts Are Expected to Disappoint the Average Worker

Core Insights - President Trump's promise of significant tax refunds may not materialize for many Americans, particularly those without children, leading to potential political repercussions for congressional Republicans ahead of midterm elections [1][2] Taxpayer Impact - A typical W-2 worker without children will see minimal year-over-year changes, with slightly over half of taxpayers falling into this category [1] - Wealthy taxpayers in high-tax states, workers receiving tips or overtime, and seniors are expected to benefit the most, while the majority will experience only modest increases in refunds [4][5] Economic Context - Consumer sentiment is at a near-record low, with personal financial views the worst since 2009, compounded by slow wage growth and dim job prospects due to a labor market slowdown [3] Tax Refund Projections - The average tax refund is projected to be nearly $1,000 higher than previous years, with the average refund around $3,000 [6] - The White House claims refunds could be about one-third larger than usual, but actual savings from the higher standard deduction will vary, generally resulting in increases of less than $100 to a few hundred dollars [7]