Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is expected to transition from a bottoming phase in 2025 to stable growth in 2026, driven by policy support and improved net interest margins, leading to a structural bull market in bank stocks. Group 1: 2025 Banking Sector Performance - In 2025, the banking sector demonstrated a structural bull market, with the Shenwan primary banking index rising by 16.2% as of December 16, 2025, and Agricultural Bank increasing by nearly 50% [1] - Regional leaders like Xiamen Bank, Chongqing Bank, and Qingdao Bank saw increases of over 20%, while some joint-stock banks had gains of less than 5% [1] - The funding landscape showed significant differentiation, with strategic funds like insurance and AMC increasing their holdings, while public funds and northbound capital reduced their positions significantly in Q3 [1] Group 2: Valuation and Financial Metrics - The Shenwan primary banking index's price-to-book (PB) ratio rose from a low of 0.42 in 2023 to 0.54 by December 16, 2025, indicating an upward shift in valuations for major state-owned banks and quality regional banks [2] - By Q3 2025, the net interest margin for commercial banks was stable at 1.42%, with net profits for the first three quarters at 1.87 trillion yuan, unchanged from the previous year [2] - Non-performing loans increased to 3.52 trillion yuan, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.52%, but a provision coverage ratio of 207.15% provided a buffer against risks [2] Group 3: Outlook for 2026 - In 2026, the banking sector is expected to benefit from policy dividends, with net interest margins stabilizing, which will support revenue growth [3] - Analysts predict that the decline in net interest margins will further narrow, leading to positive growth in net interest income [3] - The asset quality is expected to show a mixed trend, with retail and small business exposures being the main sources of non-performing loans, while corporate exposures remain stable [3] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The differentiated performance of bank stocks in 2025 is likely to continue into 2026, with a focus on policy dividends, operational resilience, and valuation recovery [4] - High dividend stocks are seen as a stable investment choice, particularly regional banks with strong performance certainty [5] - Analysts suggest that banks with strong loan organization capabilities and stabilizing net interest margins will perform better, while those in a non-performing loan improvement cycle will have stronger profit release potential [5]
前瞻2026年银行股： 从关键主线中挖掘机会
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2025-12-16 20:21