Is it Time to Be Bullish Soybeans?

Market Overview - The US soybean market is experiencing a downward trend despite record crush and export shipment numbers for US soybean meal, leading to discussions on whether it is time to become bullish again [1] - The secondary trend for soybean futures has turned down, indicating that the market is likely to continue in this trend until influenced by external factors, particularly changes in noncommercial fund activity [3] Technical Analysis - The March soybean futures contract has shown a key bearish reversal, extending the previous uptrend to a high of $11.7250 before closing lower at $11.3425, confirming a new secondary downtrend [5] - The secondary downtrend gained momentum as the contract dropped to a low of $10.86, closing at $10.8675, down 29.25 cents for the week [5] Market Dynamics - During the US government shutdown, the soybean futures market rallied due to buying from both commercial and noncommercial interests, leading to a record large noncommercial long futures position [4] - Following the reopening of the government, renewed selling from both commercial and noncommercial sides has contributed to the current downtrend in the market [4]