Micron Technology: The Stakes for Wednesday’s Earnings Report (Part 1)

Core Viewpoint - Micron Technology is set to report its fiscal first quarter 2026 results, with investors keenly assessing the company's ability to maintain its growth momentum in the semiconductor industry, particularly in the context of artificial intelligence [1]. Financial Performance - The company's stock is currently trading around $241, having more than tripled since the beginning of 2025, although it remains below the $260 peak reached earlier this month [2]. - Wall Street anticipates earnings per share between $3.77 and $3.94, more than double the $1.79 from the same period last year, with projected revenue around $12.6 billion to $12.8 billion compared to $8.7 billion a year earlier [3]. Market Position and Trends - Micron's valuation expansion is attributed to its strategic positioning at the intersection of several technological megatrends, particularly in the memory semiconductor sector [4]. - The company has capitalized on the increasing demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) technology, essential for AI applications, by ramping up production [5]. HBM Market Dynamics - Micron achieved a significant milestone by securing the number two position in the HBM market with approximately 21% market share, surpassing Samsung's 17% and trailing only SK Hynix's 62% [6]. - The company reported that its HBM inventory is sold out through 2025 and 2026, and it has begun shipping 12-layer HBM3E chips for Nvidia's Blackwell Ultra platform, making it one of the few qualified suppliers [7]. Revenue Growth and Recovery - Micron expects to ship several billion dollars worth of HBM products in 2025, with analysts projecting continued rapid expansion in this segment [8]. - The broader DRAM business has shown remarkable recovery, with DRAM revenue reaching $7.1 billion in the fiscal third quarter, accounting for 76% of total revenue and marking a 51% year-over-year growth [8].