今年以来累计涨超75% 美降息周期下有色金属行情可期

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance in 2023, with the Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index rising by 75.82%, driven primarily by industrial metals like copper, gold, and lead-zinc [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index has increased by 75.82% year-to-date, ranking it among the top sectors in the Shenwan industry index [2]. - Within the sector, industrial metals have led the gains, with the Shenwan Copper Index up by 100.57%, Shenwan Gold Index up by 79.17%, Shenwan Lead-Zinc Index up by 75.06%, and Shenwan Aluminum Index up by 51.75% [2]. - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of 25 basis points on December 11, related ETFs have seen significant net inflows, with the Southern Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals ETF receiving a net inflow of 468 million yuan in the week leading up to December 15 [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The macroeconomic environment, characterized by loose liquidity and geopolitical tensions, has positively impacted non-ferrous metal prices [3]. - Industrial metal inventories are at historical lows, with global refined copper stocks at 1,451 thousand tons as of November 30, the lowest in nearly 35 years [3]. - The aluminum production capacity utilization is nearing its maximum, with mainstream electrolytic aluminum inventories at 584 thousand tons, also at historically low levels [3]. Group 3: Future Demand Trends - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to grow significantly due to the green transition, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and AI infrastructure [4]. - By the third quarter of 2025, copper demand from electric vehicles and charging stations is projected to increase, with a year-on-year growth of 8% in apparent copper consumption in China [4]. - The trend of "using aluminum instead of copper" is accelerating, with ongoing demand in air conditioning heat exchangers and battery trays for electric vehicles [4]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - Despite a recent decline of 2.63% in the Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index, institutions maintain a positive long-term outlook for the sector under the premise of macroeconomic easing [5]. - The focus is on the "three safe-haven metals": copper, aluminum, and gold, with copper expected to face supply-demand tightness by 2026 due to reduced production forecasts from leading copper mining companies [6]. - Investment strategies suggest prioritizing leading companies with core mining rights and those with deep processing capabilities, emphasizing the dual themes of supply rigidity and green premium [6].