Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-12-16 22:21Core Viewpoint - The global aviation industry is facing a significant supply-demand imbalance, with over 5,300 aircraft delivery gaps and 17,000 backlogged orders, leading to a prolonged struggle for the industry as demand rebounds by the end of 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Supply Chain Challenges - The aviation supply chain is experiencing severe bottlenecks, impacting revenue growth, green transformation, and passenger travel costs for airlines [1]. - Engine supply shortages are a critical issue, with many new aircraft unable to be delivered on time due to a lack of engines, leading to increased maintenance costs and operational challenges [7][10]. - The average age of the global airline fleet has risen to historical highs, with the passenger fleet averaging 12.8 years, which increases maintenance costs and hinders fuel efficiency improvements [10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that global passenger traffic will reach 4.98 billion by 2025, with a 4.4% increase expected in 2026, despite the backlog of orders [4][6]. - Airlines are still pursuing fleet expansion plans despite delivery challenges, driven by increasing global demand and competitive pressures [5]. - Aircraft leasing has become a vital strategy for airlines to expand capacity, with leasing companies seeing significant revenue growth [6]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The supply chain bottlenecks are projected to cost the global aviation industry over $11 billion by 2025, affecting fuel, maintenance, and engine leasing costs [11]. - Rising operational costs are leading to increased ticket prices and a decline in passenger experience due to flight delays and service reductions [11][12]. - The aviation industry is under pressure to enhance its green transformation efforts, with a significant drop in fuel efficiency growth expected due to an aging fleet [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The industry is urged to build a more resilient supply chain to address the ongoing supply-demand imbalance, which is seen as a long-term battle [1][13]. - There is a call for increased international cooperation and policy support to mitigate supply chain risks and enhance strategic investments in core technologies [12]. - China's advancements in aircraft manufacturing and engine technology are viewed as potential game-changers in the global aviation landscape [8][12].