把握“成长+价值”双主线 兴业证券最新研判

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the investment strategy meeting is to explore investment opportunities in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the macroeconomic environment for 2026 [1] - The focus is on the dual core scenarios of trading and allocation in the investment advisory transformation process, aiming to create a comprehensive service system for different risk preferences and asset sizes [1] Group 2 - Zhang Yidong emphasizes that the investment strategy for Hong Kong stocks in 2026 should be patient and steady, with excess returns expected from "growth momentum and value reconstruction dividends" [2] - The AI wave is highlighted as a significant trend, with expectations that 2026 will benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, drawing parallels to the internet boom of 1996-1998 [2] - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 includes an anticipated improvement in nominal GDP growth and moderate inflation recovery, with a focus on structural opportunities in the stock market [2] Group 3 - Four key areas of opportunity are identified: 1) Growth momentum driven by the AI wave, particularly in internet, edge AI, media, and sectors supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan" such as military technology and new energy [3] 2) High-yield assets like insurance, banks, and energy in a low-interest-rate environment [3] 3) Value discovery in traditional industries amid global supply chain restructuring and profit improvement policies [3] 4) Strategic assets like gold and rare earths in the context of global order reconstruction [3] Group 4 - Zhang Qiyao expresses optimism for the A-share market in 2026, citing limited negative external impacts and supportive internal factors such as GDP recovery and improved corporate profitability [4] - The influx of domestic and foreign capital into the stock market is expected to deepen in 2026, driven by wealth reallocation and the return of foreign investment [4] - The performance of industries is anticipated to shift from a "淘汰赛" (elimination race) to a "竞速赛" (speed race) as more sectors enter a profit recovery phase [4] Group 5 - The sources of prosperity for listed companies in 2026 are expected to focus on AI, new energy, military, and innovative pharmaceuticals, along with price recovery and global competitive advantages [5] - The low-interest-rate environment will continue to favor dividend sectors as quality core assets, while the selection of individual stocks may shift towards free cash flow as overall corporate profitability improves [5]