日元迎来30年拐点：日本央行加息至0.75%，宽松时代正式落幕

Group 1 - Japan's manufacturing activity showed a slower contraction in December, with the PMI rising from 48.7 in November to 49.7, remaining below the expansion threshold of 50 for the sixth consecutive month [1][36] - The service sector's growth momentum weakened, with the service PMI declining from 53.2 to 52.5, leading to a composite PMI drop from 52.0 to 51.5 [2][37] - Despite a slowdown in factory output, the pace of declining goods demand has eased to the lowest level in a year and a half, indicating potential stabilization in the manufacturing sector [2][37] Group 2 - Japan's government approved an additional budget of 18.3 trillion yen (approximately 118 billion USD) for the fiscal year 2025, marking the largest economic stimulus plan since the COVID-19 pandemic [3][38] - The budget is significantly higher than the previous year's 13.9 trillion yen and is primarily financed through new debt issuance, reflecting a proactive stance on economic support [3][38] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise the short-term policy interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, signaling a move towards monetary policy normalization [4][40] - This rate hike is driven by persistent inflation pressures, with Japan's inflation rate remaining above the 2% target for nearly four years [6][51] - The central bank's confidence in a wage-inflation cycle is bolstered by expectations of significant wage increases due to labor shortages [6][41] Group 4 - Japan's fiscal spending is expanding, with the initial budget for the fiscal year 2026 projected to exceed 120 trillion yen, driven by rising social welfare costs and defense spending [4][39][54] - Concerns over fiscal sustainability are growing as the government prepares to issue a large volume of bonds, pushing the benchmark 10-year government bond yield to an 18-year high [4][54] Group 5 - In the U.S., November non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000, rebounding from a decline of 105,000 in October, indicating resilience in the labor market despite trade policy uncertainties [7][42] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, influenced by a 43-day government shutdown that distorted data collection [7][42] - Retail sales in October remained flat, reflecting cautious consumer spending amid rising living costs, with core retail sales showing a 0.8% increase [7][45][46] Group 6 - U.S. business activity growth slowed to a six-month low in December, with the composite PMI dropping from 54.2 to 53.0, indicating weakening demand in both manufacturing and services [12][47] - Input price inflation reached a near three-year high, reinforcing concerns about persistent inflation [12][49]