澳洲消费者信心跌回悲观区间，澳币AUDUSD正在为“高通胀”重新定价

Economic Overview - Australia's December PMI preliminary value shows a divergence in the private sector economy, with the composite PMI expansion momentum slowing to a seven-month low [1] - Manufacturing PMI increased from 51.6 in November to 52.2, supported by growth in new orders and strong exports, while the services PMI fell from 52.8 to 51.0, dragging down overall economic expansion [1][34] - The composite PMI dropped from 52.6 to 51.1, remaining above the 50 mark for the 15th consecutive month but marking the lowest growth rate in seven months [1][34] Market Insights - New orders in the Australian private sector remain solid, providing a foundation for output growth, although the overall growth rate has slowed [2] - Employment data continues to show growth as companies hire more staff to meet existing workloads, with business confidence rising to its highest level since June [2] - However, there is a divergence in backlogs, with manufacturing backlogs increasing while service sector backlogs have decreased for eight consecutive months, leading to an overall reduction in backlog volume [2] Cost and Pricing Dynamics - Input cost inflation has intensified in both sectors, with commodity input costs rising at the fastest pace in eight months, leading companies to pass some costs onto consumers, pushing sales price inflation to a three-month high [2][35] - The Australian dollar has depreciated against the US dollar, falling below the 0.662 mark due to the composite PMI slowdown and declining consumer confidence [2][35] Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence in Australia has declined in December, reversing the previous month's gains, with the index dropping 9% to 94.5 points, indicating a return to pessimism [3][36] - Households are increasingly worried about inflation and interest rate prospects, with expectations for personal financial situations and economic outlooks declining significantly [3][36] US Retail Sales and Economic Activity - US retail sales in October remained flat, indicating consumer spending is under pressure, particularly affecting lower-income households, while high-income households continue to show spending resilience [4][37] - The October core retail sales, excluding volatile categories, increased by 0.8%, suggesting consumer spending is still supporting economic growth [5][38] - In December, US business activity slowed to a six-month low, with the composite PMI dropping to 53.0, indicating a weakening economic momentum [6][39] Inventory Trends - US business inventories grew by 0.2% in September, slightly above expectations, indicating potential support for GDP growth, but also reflecting underlying demand pressures [8][41] - Retail inventories increased by 0.4%, with significant growth in motor vehicle inventories, while wholesale inventories rose by 0.5% [9][42]