“非农数据”喜忧参半！美联储主席人选，大消息！机构：A股调整进入尾声

Group 1: Employment Data - The unemployment rate in the US rose to 4.6% in November, the highest level since October 2021 [1][11] - The total number of unemployed individuals reached approximately 7.83 million, significantly higher than the 7.12 million reported in the same month last year [1][11] - In November, 64,000 new non-farm jobs were added, primarily in healthcare, construction, and social assistance sectors, while jobs in transportation, warehousing, and federal government sectors decreased [1][11] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - Following the employment data release, market expectations shifted towards the possibility of 3 to 4 interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year [7][16] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is estimated at 24.4%, with a 75.6% chance of maintaining current rates [12] - The market anticipates a cumulative 25 basis point cut by March, with a probability of 43.5% for a cut and 47.5% for no change [12] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the employment data, US stock futures rose, the dollar index fell, and US Treasury yields declined, indicating an increase in market risk appetite [16] - The adjustment in the global stock market is attributed to various factors, including disappointing earnings from major tech companies and concerns over AI project delays [15] - A-shares are expected to rebound in line with global liquidity remaining accommodative, supported by the anticipated easing of monetary policy [16][17] Group 4: A-Share Market Outlook - Analysts believe that the A-share market has entered a layout window, with strong support at lower levels despite increased volatility [17][18] - Key factors influencing A-share performance include domestic liquidity conditions, economic data trends, and the global liquidity environment, particularly the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [17][18] - Financial and technology sectors are highlighted as areas of potential opportunity, with financial stocks benefiting from increased trading volumes and policy support [18][19]