中信证券：11月社零低于预期 服务消费表现平稳

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that China's retail sales in November 2025 totaled 4.3898 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, which is below the Wind consensus expectation of 2.9% [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - The total retail sales of consumer goods above designated size reached 1.643 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 2.2% [1] - Excluding automobiles and petroleum, the retail sales growth rate was 1.8% [1] - The automotive sector experienced a significant decline due to a high base and the reduction of subsidies, while food and daily necessities showed positive performance [1] Group 2: Consumer Behavior Insights - The performance of optional consumer goods remained stable under a low base, although national subsidies in certain categories had a negative impact [1] - Service consumption and catering income remained robust, indicating some resilience in consumer spending [1] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The lower-than-expected retail sales figures suggest that current domestic demand still requires stimulation, with signs of fatigue in commodity sales following subsidy reductions [1] - Recent meetings of the Central Political Bureau and the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the necessity of expanding domestic demand [1] - The macroeconomic environment remains weak, and the self-recovery of consumer sentiment is expected to take time, with potential short-term opportunities linked to fiscal stimulus policies [1] - For 2026, the focus should be on opportunities driven by wealth effect transmission and supply-side optimization [1] - Long-term investment strategies should prioritize changes in consumer structure [1]