华泰 | 宏观：短期扰动之外美国私人就业维持扩张——11月非农点评

Overview - The core point of the article is that the U.S. labor market showed resilience in November, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 64,000, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [1][2]. Employment Data - In November, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, a significant recovery from October's loss of 105,000 jobs [4]. - The private sector added 69,000 jobs in November, up from 52,000 in October, indicating a stable expansion despite government sector disruptions [3][5]. - The unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points from September, attributed partly to a rise in the labor participation rate to 62.5% [1][3]. Wage Growth - Hourly wage growth showed a decline, with a month-over-month increase of only 0.1% in November, down from 0.4% in October [1][4]. - The three-month annualized growth rate of hourly wages fell from 4.2% in October to 3.1% in November [3][4]. Sector Contributions - The service sector remained the primary contributor to job growth, adding 50,000 jobs, with healthcare being a significant driver [3][5]. - The goods-producing sector saw a marginal improvement, adding 19,000 jobs, primarily due to gains in construction, while manufacturing and mining continued to decline [3][5]. Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 slightly increased, with a 2 basis point rise to 60 basis points [1]. - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points to 3.48%, while the 10-year yield remained stable at 4.16% [1].