拉尼娜状态持续 我国今冬冷暖起伏大

Core Viewpoint - The current La Niña phenomenon is expected to continue until early 2026, but the likelihood of it developing into a full La Niña event is relatively low, which may impact China's winter climate [2][3]. Group 1: La Niña Formation and Characteristics - La Niña is characterized by a significant and sustained cooling of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, defined by the NINO 3.4 index [2]. - The current La Niña state is ongoing, with monitoring indicating it will last less than five months, making the occurrence of a double La Niña event this winter unlikely [2][3]. Group 2: Impact on China's Climate - La Niña influences global climate, leading to colder temperatures in the eastern Pacific and warmer temperatures in the western Pacific, which can result in lower winter temperatures in central and eastern China [3]. - The phenomenon may also lead to reduced precipitation in southern China, increasing the risk of drought during the winter and spring [3]. Group 3: Preparedness Recommendations - The winter climate is expected to be close to normal or slightly warmer, with significant fluctuations, and overall precipitation is predicted to be lower, especially in the north [4]. - Northern regions should prepare for potential severe weather events, including strong winds and heavy snowfall, which could impact agriculture and energy demands [4]. - Areas in southeastern and central China may face risks of drought and should enhance water resource management and fire prevention measures due to higher forest fire risks [4].