预计美联储将在明年1月暂停降息 | 券商晨会

Group 1 - Citic Securities expects the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts in January 2024, despite mixed employment data in November [1] - The report highlights that the November non-farm payrolls were weaker than expected, influenced by government employees opting for "delayed resignation" plans [1] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain stable, leading the Fed to consider its policy rate as "well positioned" [1] Group 2 - Galaxy Securities notes that the current valuation of the securities sector is at a historical low, with mid-to-long term capital inflows accelerating into the market [2] - The capital market is exhibiting a "healthy bull" trend, driven by wealth management transformation, international business expansion, and financial technology empowerment [2] - The sector is positioned for both defensive and offensive strategies amid the current market conditions [2] Group 3 - Huaxi Securities emphasizes the importance of consumer sector strategies in the absence of technology sector momentum, suggesting a focus on high-low rotation logic [3] - The report indicates a decline in consumer growth rates, with expectations for policy support as highlighted in the central economic work conference [3] - The dividend sector has seen a cumulative decline of 5.95% since November 14, with historical data suggesting limited potential for further declines [3]