供应压力明显，郑糖需求不足，加速下行寻底

Industry Dynamics - As of December 15, India has 479 sugar mills in operation for the 2025/26 crushing season, an increase of 6 mills year-on-year; sugar production is 7.79 million tons, up by 1.72 million tons, representing a growth of 28.34% [1] - In Brazil, during the second half of November, the sugarcane crush volume in the central-south region was 15.99 million tons, a decrease of 21.08% year-on-year; sugar production was 724,000 tons, down by 32.94%. Cumulatively, as of the second half of November, the sugarcane crush volume was 592 million tons, a decline of 1.92% year-on-year; the sugar production ratio was 51.12%, an increase of 2.78% compared to the same period last year, with total sugar production at 39.90 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.13% [1] Market Analysis - The ICE raw sugar March contract fell by 8 points, closing at 14.85 cents per pound; the London white sugar March contract decreased by $2.4, closing at $423.8 per ton. As Brazil approaches the end of its crushing season, the market is pricing in a bumper crop. The production data for the second half of November shows a significant drop in the sugar production ratio to 35.52% year-on-year, with cumulative sugar production at 39.90 million tons, reflecting a 1.13% increase year-on-year [2] - The market is shifting focus to the northern hemisphere's crushing situation, with India reporting cumulative sugar production of 7.79 million tons as of mid-December, an increase of 28.34% year-on-year. Notably, Maharashtra has produced 3.13 million tons, up by 1.45 million tons compared to the same period last season. The expectation of abundant production in India has led to a decline in spot prices, reflecting the market's anticipation of high yields [2] Domestic Market - The Zhengzhou sugar May contract fell by 1 yuan per ton, closing at 5,132 yuan per ton. In the spot market, prices from Guangxi groups ranged from 5,310 to 5,410 yuan per ton, while Yunnan groups quoted between 5,180 and 5,300 yuan per ton. Processing sugar factories offered prices between 5,670 and 5,900 yuan per ton, with sugar factories reducing prices by 20-30 yuan. The market is characterized by low willingness to receive and deliver sugar, leading to insufficient activity in the low-price spot market [3] - The Zhengzhou sugar daily trading saw an increase in short positions, with the main contract's open interest rising by nearly 52,000 contracts, indicating growing bearish sentiment as prices continue to break lower, reaching a low of 5,124 yuan [3] Price Reference - The reference trading range for the May contract is set between 5,100 and 5,160 yuan [4]