创金合信基金魏凤春：2026年资产配置的基准线

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment strategy for 2026, emphasizing a focus on profit anchoring, midstream industries, and tool adaptation, rooted in the threefold resonance of declining risk premiums, rising profits, and structural differentiation [1][12]. Growth Factors - The expected GDP growth rate for China in 2026 is 4.9% for real GDP and 5.2% for nominal GDP, indicating a moderate recovery characterized by a "stable real and rising nominal" trend [3][14]. - The seasonal growth pattern is anticipated to be "steady at first, then rising," with various factors contributing to this trajectory throughout the year [3][14]. Corporate Profitability - Industrial profit margins are projected to recover to 5.8%-6.0% in 2026, driven by supply-side reforms and a return of pricing power, while the return on equity (ROE) for listed companies is expected to rise to 9.5%-10% [4][15]. - The recovery in corporate profitability is expected to shift from structural highlights to overall improvement, supporting a transition in the equity market from liquidity-driven to profit-driven dynamics [4][15]. Inflation Factors - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise moderately to 0.5% in 2026, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to turn positive in the third quarter, with an annual average of -0.4% [5][16]. - The inflation dynamics are characterized by weak recovery on the consumption side and gradual relief on the production side, with key marginal variables influencing these trends [5][16]. Liquidity Factors - The yield on 10-year government bonds is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a "low first, high later" pattern, influenced by ongoing debt resolution processes and a moderate economic recovery [6][17]. - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is likely to be reduced by 10 basis points, aligning with growth stabilization policies while avoiding excessive pressure on bank profitability [6][17]. Asset Allocation Strategy - Equity assets are anticipated to enter a "profit-driven" golden period, with a focus on new productive forces (electronics, high-end equipment) and cyclical goods benefiting from expected PPI recovery [9][20]. - The bond market is expected to exhibit "low volatility and narrow fluctuations," balancing liquidity and yield [9][20]. - Indirect investment tools such as wealth management products and funds are expected to benefit from the "relocation" of household savings, serving as a transitional choice for conservative funds [10][21]. - The attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets is expected to increase, suggesting a moderate allocation to these assets to mitigate single currency risks [10][21].