西部证券：出口+泛AI业务推动汽车行业稳健发展 海外销量增长能够维持

Group 1 - The core investment direction for the automotive sector in 2026 focuses on exports and mid-to-high-end products, with a particular emphasis on humanoid robot business entry by automotive companies [1] - The report indicates that the competition in the automotive market will intensify due to the potential decrease in vehicle replacement subsidies and the reduction of new energy vehicle purchase tax subsidies from 10% to 5% [2] - Despite the competitive landscape, the report remains optimistic about the continued increase in new energy vehicle penetration rates, particularly in the price segment below 150,000, which is expected to see rapid growth [2] Group 2 - The heavy truck segment is anticipated to enter an upward recovery cycle starting in 2023, with stable sales expected to reach 1.1 million units by 2026, driven by economic recovery and increasing demand for engineering and freight transport [3] - The domestic bus market is expected to recover gradually to pre-pandemic levels due to natural replacement cycles and tourism demand, with export sales also projected to grow [3] - The electric two-wheeler market is expected to see a decline in total sales to approximately 57 million units in 2026, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, following the implementation of new national standards [3] Group 3 - The motorcycle industry is expected to maintain strong export momentum due to improved product competitiveness and the growing domestic enthusiast market for high-displacement leisure motorcycles [4] - The automotive aftermarket is entering a new cycle characterized by "stock competition and structural reshaping," with structural opportunities arising from increasing vehicle ownership and age [4]