全社会2026年到期的2年期及以上定存规模或达45万亿元，如何影响金融市场和商业银行？

Core Insights - The report highlights that the maturity of medium to long-term fixed deposits in 2026 is expected to reach 45 trillion yuan, significantly impacting financial products and markets [8][10]. Group 1: Deposit Maturity and Impact - The total amount of medium to long-term fixed deposits maturing in 2025 and 2026 is projected to be 35 trillion yuan and 45 trillion yuan, respectively, which is notably higher than the 20-30 trillion yuan range in previous years [8]. - A significant portion of the 2026 maturity will come from three-year fixed deposits initiated in 2023, estimated to be around 38 trillion yuan [10]. - The structure of fixed deposit maturities is closely linked to income expectations and interest rate comparisons, with a notable increase in long-term deposits during periods of low income confidence [5][10]. Group 2: Financial Products and Market Outlook - Short-term fixed deposit products, dividend insurance, and cash management products are expected to benefit from the upcoming maturity of fixed deposits, as consumers are likely to prefer shorter-term options due to declining interest rates [10][15]. - The equity and short-term bond markets are anticipated to gain from increased allocations from insurance funds and cash management products, while the liquidity management of banks may lead to increased volatility in the money and long-term bond markets [15][18]. Group 3: Banking Sector Implications - The shortening of deposit terms is expected to help banks control costs, with a projected narrowing of net interest margin decline to 3-4 basis points by 2026 due to lower deposit costs [18][20]. - Enhanced liquidity management will be required as the shift towards shorter-term deposits and non-bank deposits may negatively impact key liquidity indicators for banks [21].