光大期货：12月17日金融日报

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a volatile decline, with the TMT sector showing weak performance. The Wind All A index fell by 1.45%, with a trading volume of 1.75 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index decreased by 1.74%, the CSI 500 index by 1.58%, the CSI 300 index by 1.2%, and the SSE 50 index by 1.08% [2][4] - The Central Political Bureau meeting was held to outline economic work for 2026, with a focus on boosting domestic demand. The Central Economic Work Conference is expected to convene soon [2][4] - Upcoming meetings include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and potential interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, which may temporarily boost liquidity and increase index volatility [2][4] Economic Policy - The central government is expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, emphasizing stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations [6] - The market is currently cautious due to high valuations and the lack of a closed-loop profit model in the technology sector, despite strong performance expectations [2][6] Bond Market - The bond futures market showed mixed results, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.19%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts rose by 0.05% and 0.03%, respectively [6] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 135.3 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a bid rate of 1.4%, maintaining the same rate as the previous operation [6] Precious Metals - Gold prices fluctuated, with the gold-silver ratio dropping to around 67.3 and the platinum-palladium spread widening to approximately 240 USD/ounce [7] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs in November, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, indicating a cooling job market [7] - The preliminary Markit Composite PMI for December was 53, below expectations, with both manufacturing and services sectors underperforming [7]