政策分化主导情绪 欧央行鹰派预期托底欧元

Core Viewpoint - The current foreign exchange market is characterized by a balance between the euro and the dollar, influenced by diverging monetary policies of the ECB and the Fed, with the euro showing strength due to the resilience of the Eurozone economy, while the dollar faces pressure from internal divisions and policy easing [1][2]. Group 1: ECB Policy and Economic Indicators - The ECB is expected to maintain interest rates during its final meeting of the year on December 18, marking the fourth consecutive pause since July [1]. - Recent economic data supports the ECB's stance, with Eurozone inflation rising to 2.2% in November and core inflation at 2.4%, alongside a GDP growth of 0.2% in Q3, exceeding expectations [1]. - Market expectations have shifted, with the probability of a rate hike increasing to 40% for next year, and a 50% chance of a rate increase by the end of 2026 [1]. Group 2: Fed Policy and Dollar Dynamics - The Fed completed its third rate cut of the year on December 10, lowering rates to 3.5%-3.75%, but faced record internal dissent with three members voting against the decision [2]. - The Fed's recent actions, including the resumption of short-term Treasury purchases, have diminished the dollar's appeal as a safe haven, contributing to a decline in the dollar index [2]. - Institutions have differing views on the euro's trajectory, with some predicting a rise to 1.3 by mid-2026, while others caution about potential trade competitiveness issues due to a strong euro [2][3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The market consensus suggests that if the euro stabilizes above 1.1740, it may test the resistance level at 1.1800; however, a drop below 1.1720 could lead to a correction towards the 1.1680-1.1700 range [3]. - The upcoming ECB meeting is seen as a critical catalyst, with potential for upward momentum in the euro if inflation risks are emphasized, while dovish comments could slow its rise [3]. - In the medium to long term, the divergence in ECB and Fed policies, the sustainability of Eurozone economic recovery, and changes in U.S. tariffs are identified as key variables influencing the euro-dollar exchange rate [3].