美指偏弱美联储就业数据指引

Group 1 - The US Dollar Index reported at 97.98, showing a slight decline of 0.01%, continuing a recent downward trend after reaching a high of 99.24 on December 10, with a cumulative drop of 1.26% as of December 16, influenced by adjustments in Federal Reserve policy expectations and mixed economic data [1] - The Federal Reserve completed its third interest rate cut of the year on December 11, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.50%-3.75%, characterized as a "hawkish cut" due to the addition of language suggesting a pause in rate cuts likely in January 2026, with significant divergence among officials regarding future policy paths [1] - Economic data showed a mixed picture, with November non-farm payrolls increasing by 64,000, surpassing Dow Jones expectations of 45,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021, indicating signs of weakness in the labor market [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve announced the resumption of short-term Treasury purchases starting December 12, planning to buy approximately $40 billion over the next 30 days, interpreted as a "quasi-QE" signal, which alleviated some tightening pressure from hawkish policy guidance [2] - The technical outlook for the Dollar Index indicates a short-term core fluctuation range of 97.50-98.20, with 97.50 serving as a key support level; a break below this could lead to further declines towards the 97.00 mark, while resistance is concentrated in the 98.20-98.50 range [3] - Future focus will be on US core PCE inflation data, the December non-farm payroll report, and recent comments from Federal Reserve officials, alongside the ongoing impact of government shutdowns on data releases, which will determine whether the Dollar Index can escape its current weak trend [3]