国联民生证券:优选纺织服装全球供应链龙头 把握品牌结构性机遇
智通财经网·2025-12-17 02:48

Group 1: Retail Performance - Retail sales in China for clothing, shoes, and textiles showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.5% from January to October 2025, maintaining a low single-digit growth rate, with October's textile retail sales growing by 6.3% year-on-year, likely influenced by seasonal consumption trends [1] - From January to November 2025, China's exports of textiles, clothing, and footwear decreased by 3.3% year-on-year to $305.5 billion, with a declining trend since March; however, textile exports turned positive in November, and the decline in clothing and footwear exports narrowed month-on-month [1] - The CITIC Textile and Apparel Index increased by 15.1% from January to November 2025, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.9 percentage points, ranking 18th among 30 sectors in the CITIC first-level industry comparison [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Insights - Global apparel retail performance is mixed, with moderate growth in the UK and US, while Japan remains under pressure; US apparel retail inventory is stable, and the decline in wholesale inventory has narrowed [2] - Nike's revenue for FY2026 Q1, ending August 2025, showed a reduced year-on-year decline of 1% at constant exchange rates, indicating a potential turnaround in operations, with signs of recovery in North America and core categories like running [2] - The easing of trade relations between China and the US and the reduction of tariff impacts may enhance the certainty of manufacturing orders, with a continued trend of global capacity layout among textile and apparel manufacturers to meet supply chain risk diversification needs [2] Group 3: Brand and Market Trends - Domestic sports brand revenue growth showed a declining trend from Q1 to Q3 2025, yet most sports companies still achieved positive growth, demonstrating resilience amid consumer pressure; brands like Descente, KOLON, and Saucony experienced rapid revenue growth [3] - The outdoor market in China is expanding, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13.8% expected from 2019 to 2024, reaching a market size of about 102.7 billion yuan in 2024, with domestic brands growing at a compound rate of about 17.8% [3] - The upcoming Milan Winter Olympics is anticipated to boost winter sports activities, while brands that meet consumer demands for safety and comfort in products like cotton soft towels and sanitary napkins are expected to gain market share [3]

Guolian Minsheng Sec-国联民生证券:优选纺织服装全球供应链龙头 把握品牌结构性机遇 - Reportify