乌克兰停火的预期升温 美小麦期货延续跌势

Core Viewpoint - The recent harvests in Argentina and Australia, along with rising expectations for a ceasefire in Ukraine, have intensified supply pressures, leading to a continued decline in U.S. wheat futures, which are hovering near their lowest levels since late October [1] Market Information - As of December 14, the European Union's soft wheat export volume for the 2025/26 season is projected at 10.5 million tons, down from 10.8 million tons in the same period last year [1] - The EU's barley export volume for the 2025/26 season is expected to be 5 million tons, significantly higher than 2.1 million tons in the previous year [1] - The French Ministry of Agriculture forecasts that the winter wheat planting area for the 2026 harvest season will reach 4.56 million hectares, a 2.3% increase from 2025, but slightly below the five-year average [1] - According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as of the week ending December 11, 2025, the U.S. wheat export inspection volume was 488,025 tons, revised from 396,058 tons the previous week [1] - For the current crop year, the cumulative U.S. wheat export inspection volume stands at 14,124,803 tons, compared to 11,578,252 tons in the same period last year [1] - Dmitry Rylko, head of IKAR consulting, reported that the offshore price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content was $228 per ton in the second half of January, an increase of $0.5 from the previous week [1]