Crude Prices Fall on Signs of Weak Chinese Energy Demand

Core Viewpoint - Crude oil and gasoline prices are experiencing significant downward pressure due to concerns over global energy demand, particularly influenced by disappointing economic data from China and geopolitical developments regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2][3][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - January WTI crude oil is down by $0.84 (-1.46%), reaching a 1.75-month low, while January RBOB gasoline has decreased by $0.0234 (-1.34%), marking a 4.75-year nearest-futures low [1][2]. - The crude crack spread has fallen to a 2.25-month low, which discourages refiners from purchasing crude oil for conversion into gasoline and distillates [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - China's industrial production for November increased by only 4.8% year-on-year, down from 4.9% in October and below the expected 5.0% [3]. - Retail sales in China for November rose by 1.3% year-on-year, significantly lower than the anticipated 2.9% and representing the smallest increase in 2.75 years [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Optimism regarding a potential ceasefire in Ukraine could lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russian energy exports, which would negatively impact oil prices [4]. - Increased geopolitical risks in Venezuela, following the interception of a sanctioned oil tanker by US forces, may support crude prices by complicating Venezuela's oil export capabilities [6]. Group 4: Storage and Supply - Crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days rose by 5.1% week-on-week to 120.23 million barrels as of December 12 [5].