A Storm Is Coming and Bear May Follow, Expert Says

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is currently in an uptrend, but there are signs of a potential bear market approaching, particularly in Q1 2026, which will be critical for determining the market's direction [1][3]. Group 1: Bitcoin Market Analysis - Bitcoin is still in an uptrend, but there is significant overhead resistance, with the 50-week moving average at approximately $102,000 [2]. - The psychological barrier of $100,000 is crucial; if Bitcoin can reclaim and hold this level, it may prevent a bear market [2]. - A failure to reclaim $100,000 could indicate the end of the bull market, with $74,000 identified as a critical support zone that must be defended [3]. Group 2: Bear Market Indicators - Falling below the $74,000 support zone would confirm the onset of a bear market, with the next downside target around $53,000 [4]. - Technical indicators suggest that momentum is still present, and it may take time for bearish momentum to shift to bullish [5]. - The six-week LMACD has confirmed a bearish crossover, indicating a potential delay of 200-365 days before a market bottom is reached [5]. Group 3: Technical Indicators - Monthly LMACD lines need to converge and show a bullish crossover to invalidate the bear market thesis [6].