智通财经网·2025-12-17 03:43Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that the U.S. non-farm employment decreased overall in October and November, with the unemployment rate rising from 4.4% in September to 4.6% in November, suggesting a challenging short-term outlook for demand and employment stability [1][2]. Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In November, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs, while October saw a decrease of 105,000 jobs, indicating a mixed employment landscape [2][3]. - The unemployment rate increased to 4.6%, surpassing market expectations, and the labor force participation rate rose to 62.5% [2][3]. Group 2: Factors Behind Unemployment Rate Increase - The rise in the unemployment rate is attributed to temporary layoffs and improvements in labor supply, with the government’s "deferred resignation" plan impacting job numbers [3]. - The credibility of the unemployment data is questioned, as the threshold for triggering the "Sam Rule" is 4.7%, and the household survey response rate was only 64%, below normal levels [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Federal Reserve Actions - The short-term outlook suggests that the unemployment rate may remain elevated, with demand being a significant constraint, although the job market may gradually rebalance by 2026 [4]. - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in January 2026 is uncertain and will depend on December's economic data, as the current unemployment data may be distorted [4].