硫酸铵：装置降负 市场反弹

Core Viewpoint - The domestic ammonium sulfate market is experiencing high prices due to reduced operational capacity of production facilities, with expectations of entering a phase of price fluctuation and adjustment [1][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - As of December 12, ammonium sulfate prices in Shandong are stable, with mainstream prices for caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate ranging from 1150 to 1250 RMB per ton, and coke-grade ammonium sulfate priced between 950 and 1050 RMB per ton [1]. - The production capacity of ammonium sulfate is expected to exceed 28 million tons this year, driven by the rapid release of by-product capacity from caprolactam and other processes [2]. - The operating rate of caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate plants dropped to 76.79% by December 5, a decrease of 8.72 percentage points from early November, resulting in a daily production reduction of approximately 3200 tons [2]. Group 2: Price Trends - The price of caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate increased by 5.79% to an average of 1096 RMB on November 26, and further rose by 14.19% to 1183 RMB by December 5 [3]. - Despite the price increase, downstream manufacturers are cautious in their purchasing, leading to a short-term balance in supply and demand [4]. Group 3: Export Dynamics - China's ammonium sulfate exports are on the rise, with a projected volume exceeding 16 million tons in 2024, marking a 20% year-on-year increase [4]. - The main export destination is Brazil, and the province of Fujian has seen significant export growth, with a 58.79% increase in export value in the first three quarters of the year [4]. - However, the international market is entering a demand off-season, and recent anti-dumping measures from Mexico may negatively impact exports [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Industry experts predict that the ammonium sulfate market will enter a phase of fluctuation and adjustment, influenced by seasonal demand and upstream pricing pressures [5][6]. - The ongoing losses in caprolactam production may lead to further reductions in operational capacity, while demand from sectors like compound fertilizers and industrial applications remains stable [6].