华安证券：积极把握化工周期反转机会 关注反内卷政策与国产替代两大主线

Group 1 - The global macro environment faces significant uncertainty by 2026, with a reshaping of global trade patterns and a slowdown in chemical capital expenditure, leading to a focus on two high-certainty investment themes: anti-involution and domestic substitution [1] - The price index of Chinese chemical products has declined to a low level due to the drop in upstream bulk energy prices and pressure on supply and demand for chemical products in 2025 [1] - The domestic capacity for organic silicon has peaked, with overseas manufacturers continuing to exit, allowing leading companies to drive industry recovery; the expansion phase of PTA capacity is nearing completion, and the polyester chain's prosperity is expected to rebound [1] Group 2 - The domestic production of bio-based materials is strongly supported by national policies, with companies accelerating technological breakthroughs and industrialization, forming a domestic ecological chain from bio-based monomers to composite products [2] - Domestic companies in lubricant additives are accelerating technological breakthroughs, with several high-end products passing international certification, leading to a reversal in import-export structure and rapid domestic substitution [2] - The global display panel market is experiencing stable growth, with domestic companies accelerating material upgrades and research and development, significantly speeding up the process of domestic substitution [2]