“封锁令”点燃油市! 特朗普下令围堵委内瑞拉油轮 原油价格从四年来最低位反弹

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. sanctions and military pressure on Venezuela have led to a limited rebound in international crude oil prices, with Brent crude futures rising around 1% after hitting a four-year low due to concerns over global oil supply surplus [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Sanctions and Market Reaction - President Trump has ordered a complete blockade on sanctioned oil tankers entering and exiting Venezuela, escalating military tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela [3]. - Following the sanctions, Brent crude prices have rebounded slightly, while WTI crude prices have also seen a minor increase after a significant drop [1][4]. Group 2: Venezuela's Oil Production and Export Risks - Venezuela's oil production has been recovering since hitting a historical low in 2020, with recent exports nearing 590,000 barrels per day, but still below historical levels [3]. - Approximately 30% of Venezuela's oil transport faces risks due to U.S. sanctions, which could lead to long-term export disruptions for Asian buyers [3]. Group 3: Supply Surplus Expectations - The oil market is currently under pressure from expectations of a significant supply surplus, driven by OPEC+ restoring idle capacity and increased production from other countries, including the U.S. and Canada [4][6]. - Wall Street analysts predict a substantial oversupply of around 2.2 million barrels per day in 2026, with average prices for Brent and WTI expected to be significantly lower than current levels [6]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs forecasts that Brent crude will average around $56 per barrel in 2026, while JPMorgan analysts suggest prices could drop to around $30 unless OPEC+ implements major production cuts [6]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates a record oversupply of nearly 4 million barrels per day, although adjustments by oil-producing countries may mitigate this surplus [6].